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Friday, May 09, 2008

Page Zero Seminar Update - May 15 Event

If you've been considering attending the Page Zero seminar (half-day, includes breakfast, we'll go to lunch afterwards informally) on paid search at the Westin Harbour Castle in Toronto next Thursday May 15, now's the time to secure your spot. There are only four seats left - get yours ASAP to avoid disappointment.

Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Super Google Transparency: AdWords and Page Load Times

Google has announced that along with indications about keyword relevance and landing page quality generally, in the keyword analysis screen they now let you see whether any problems were found with page load times on the relevant landing page.

This takes away the guessing game to some extent. If you get "no problems found," chances are you should be looking to other factors if your keyword quality score is still coming in "poor."

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Thursday, May 08, 2008

Beautiful Woman Car Insurance; Traffick to Post More Often

On Tuesday at the eMetrics Summit in San Francisco, our good friend John Marhsall, now with Market Motive, gave a mildly technical but extremely accessible talk on the ins and outs of RSS and feed metrics. The best part, frankly, was that (unlike some of the other analytics chatter), I actually understood it! His incontrovertible takeaway (one and only one key point) was: "Use Feedburner."

Fortunately, thanks to Cory Kleinschmidt and his technological alacrity, we installed that baby a few years ago, so I was able to dig into some stats. I discovered something that may not shock you. People do consistently subscribe to feeds, on a really nice ratio to the number that actually visit the site on a given day. My analysis shows that we get a good number of new signups with each "significant" post. A "significant" post might be a post that would be read by more people than usual. For example, one that gets quality link love from a popular site that explores Memes in Tech (for example), particularly on a Monday. End result: we think we should post a bit more often, on topics of substance. So the posting renaissance shall continue until further notice.

We may branch out a bit, though. You get tired of posting on all the same topics, so we'll try to get back to some reviews and comments on the hot features and apps owned by the major portal (type) companies, and our sense of the user response & growth trajectory of same. Now that the search wars are in some sense drawing to a close, maybe the real action really is in the rest of the stuff, like Flickr or Google Docs, that draws people into the portal company's general brand & functionality vortex. Come to think of it, there is so much more of that stuff going on now than in 2000 when we used to write about it... , that's probably why we don't write about it. Anyway, we'll try.

Just for fun. No promises. And don't worry about search being one-sided forever. We know some real competition in the search space is bound to heat up someday.

--

In other news, glancing at the Blogger ticker that shows recently updated blogs, I noticed a blog called "Beautiful Women Car Insurance." "Beautiful Women Car Insurance?," I asked myself. "I don't know what that is, but I think it should be something I should learn more about." Said learning did not go so well, however. It turns out the site was just another "splog," also known as "scraping SOB's," or "MFA Mofo's," depending on your regional dialect. An excerpt from the gripping dialogue completely unrelated to anything, let alone this idea whose time has clearly not yet come, "Beautiful Women Car Insurance":

"Comments cattle were real estate market in the status quo in the card-telephoto DC has the strongest 10x optical zoom capability, while supporting wide-angle 28 mm and OIS Optical Anti-Shake shooting, with 3-inch 230,000-pixel LCD. Property Tax: Logically property tax levy is essentially Jiefujipin move. However, the property tax against the property market speculation and excessive investment and consumption market is fully into the basic premise, once the market level is not high, the property tax in the fight against speculation and excessive investment and consumption, while also inhibit the normal pattern of the market / High-end consumer, leading to stabilize housing prices in the property market at the same time, a structural surplus, and perhaps one day people suddenly discovered that the market in full transition product, the property market instead of restricting a well-off one of the factors. Full competition in the industry, implementation of corporate real estate distributed welfare system. Customers considerable speculation the Group of public investment to consumption and cost, high-profit sectors to promote enterprise through a number of additional benefits in high-grade commercial housing for ordinary commercial houses and public consumption. Equity funds and real estate, real estate only with the ideal of stored-value"

Well, I think you get the gist. Can randomly chosen splog names actually result in new business ideas? I'm still trying to work out this Beautiful Woman Car Insurance angle, but I think it's going to be for men in luxury cars who total them looking at beautiful women. And this Infiniti lane departure warning technology had better not spread, or it's going to kill my whole business. That, or the optical zoom technology referenced in the above paragraph.

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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"No Plans" to Bring Yahoo Glue Pages to North America

At Yahoo India, product managers have created a variation on search results pages called Glue Pages. Instead of just search results, the idea is to put together a richer page of different kinds of info.

There's nothing particularly new in that. Companies like Ask, Mahalo, and... Google have experimented with how to present mixed or blended results pages.

It sounds somewhat exciting when you first hear about it, but there's really no evidence that such pages are in fact better, or what we as searchers are really looking for. So it's nice to hear that this will be a localized experiment. Experiments are great, but let's not get crazy and overestimate people's appetite for these kinds of pages.

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Sunday, May 04, 2008

Ride Across Canada

Time out to publicize a good cause.

Ross Rader, an associate who works at Toronto-based technology company Tucows (and therefore a client; Ross was a co-founder of the company), sent around a message about his upcoming epic ride for children's cancer charities.

He's given me permission to reprint the message in its entirety.

Without any further ado - take it away, Ross.

--

Hello - sorry for the interruption (and the lengthy message to come!)

As you may know, I am very involved with the Coast to Coast Against Cancer Foundation, a Canadian charity that raises funds for childhood cancer charities whose programs improve the survival rate and quality of life of children impacted by cancer. Since 2002, the Foundation has raised almost $5 million for Camp Oochigeas, Camp Trillium and Camp Quality - and other worthy childhood cancer charities. These summer camps provide hope and a sense of normalcy for thousands of kids affected by cancer each year.

In previous years, I have participated in their Ontario event, Tour For Kids - a 4 day, 800 kilometre bike ride. With your help, I've personally raised over $25,000.

This year, I've decided to up the ante.

On June 2, myself and 60 other cyclists will be leaving downtown Vancouver, British Columbia for a 19 day journey to Halifax, Nova Scotia. In that time, we will cover 7,600 kilometers, and with your assistance, will have raised an additional $5 million dollars for these incredible kids.

I have been training since November. Each morning, I get up at 5am and ride my bike. Over the winter I would ride on an indoor trainer for 1-3 hours. On the weekends, this increases to 3-6 hours. Three times a week, I attended spinning classes ranging in length from 1-3 hours, on top of which I ran 10k and did weights twice a week each. Now that the weather has warmed up here in Toronto, I have moved my training outdoors and I'm riding more than 700 kilometres per week and the length of my weekend rides have increased to more than 12 hours. I've drastically changed my diet - former luxuries like wheat, sugar and caffeine are strictly off limits. My training program runs 7 day a week - once a month, we get a day off. While I haven't kept strict track of my mileage, I estimate that I have already put in over 4000 miles to get ready for this epic adventure.

This might *sound* like hard work, it doesn't hold a candle to what each of these children go through after hearing that they have cancer.

The ride will take 19 days. During this time, 88 Canadian children will hear the words "You have cancer".

My goal is to raise $1,000 for each of those children and families, but I will need your help.

There are three ways that you can help:

1) Make a tax deductible online donation at http://2008.snkcr.com/ross/donate.html This is one of the few charitable donations that you can make that will guarantee that 100% of the funds donated actually go to the cause. Most charities have substantial administrative overheads that the Coast to Coast Foundation avoids entirely.

2) Tell someone about my ride and let them know how they can donate.

3) Help us find corporate sponsors. This is the first year that the Foundation is putting on the National Ride. It is a *huge* logistical challenge and we're looking for corporate sponsors to help us underwrite the cost of the trip. If you know of an organization that would like to make a contribution in exchange for the great promotional value that will come from being associated with this event, please let me know.

Thank you so much for reading this far, and special thanks in advance for your support and assistance with this endeavor. I am really looking forward to fulfiling what has been a lifelong dream of riding from sea to sea. Being able to do it in support of such a worthwhile charity will make it especially meaningful.

More information on this event can be found at http://www.searsnationalkidscancerride.com and details concerning the foundation are available at http://www.coasttocoastagainstcancer.org

Thank you!

-ross

My ride journal: http://2008.snkcr.com/ross
Make a donation: http://2008.snkcr.com/ross/donate.html

"This is the true joy in life, the being used for a purpose recognized
by yourself as a mighty one; the being a force of nature instead of a
feverish, selfish, little clod of ailments and grievances complaining
that the world will not devote itself to making you happy."
- George Bernard Shaw

Posted by Andrew Goodman
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MicroHoo Deal Collapses: What a Mess

The following is just my take today. Others in my company, and me last week or a week from now, might feel differently.

In the wake of Microsoft withdrawing its offer, we're still left with no resolution on the matter. And that is what is most troubling about the charade we've just witnessed. Microsoft has not stated any intention to pursue a proxy fight. Logically, that probably means they're just playing it out in an attempt to get a better price, by hoping Yahoo will founder and need a rescue operation.

I'm not sure if I'm more annoyed by Yahoo not taking the significantly sweetened offer, or by Microsoft's high-profile approach to the prospect of combining the two businesses. This time around, it was a formal offer intended to generate all of the shareholder and media response that it did. The fact that it led to nothing suggests that it was a low-probability deal in the first place. Yahoo increased its counteroffer price so much because management didn't want to work with Ballmer and his colleagues; didn't want to be swallowed up by that enemy, in particular. The previous attempt to discuss the idea behind the scenes was probably the better way to go, but Microsoft knew that if it chose the polite route, the answer would always be no.

This morning, seeing the news, I went in search of analysis beyond the cursory regurgitations that we see on so many blogs. I figured, hey, I'm not going to stick my neck out and say "what a mess" on such a nice weekend morning, unless someone else does.

Thankfully Danny Sullivan is on fire today.

With respect, Danny reminds Microsoft that is has "no brand in search. It literally has no brand."

That, of course, is why it bid on a company that has a pretty good brand.

We're in the same place as we were a month ago, roughly. Microsoft still needs Yahoo; Yahoo doesn't really need Microsoft. Yahoo shareholders will nonetheless probably say yes to a deal if the price is high enough.

Here is where we get into a potentially long, dragged-out process. Microsoft lurking as a familiar, sinister force, hoping its acquisition target weakens further to increase the chances of shareholders agreeing to a buyout for the original offer price, or a dollar more.

If anything, though, this process has made Yahoo less likely to weaken. It will increase the company's resolve to innovate and to build its brand. Rebounding from a period of weakened morale, employees in various operating units will work harder, work smarter, work together towards tangible financial and audience-building results. Those who do not will be easier to identify, and top management will not even need an unusual degree of perspicacity or ruthlessness to cut loose the underperformers.

That all sounds good. In a normal world, that would be good. The #2 player finds its feet and moves forward. Unfortunately all that does is cause another impasse if the acquiring company returns with a hostile offer. The two sides will continue to be at least as far apart in their assessment of the value of Yahoo. Knowing how this scenario played out in the Oracle-Peoplesoft case, Ballmer already knows this. And knows that shareholders will eventually relent.

The scenario from there would be less than perfect, because a delayed hostile takeover takes on messy proportions once consummated. And the delay would probably be very long, and very costly on several measures. We have no reason to doubt that the Yahoo board will consider every form of legal poison pill clause to deter Microsoft and its own shareholders from doing a deal.

Yahoo's age and high level of institutional ownership certainly makes it more vulnerable than it otherwise would be. As autocratic as a dual-class share structure makes a company, they wouldn't be in the mess they are today if they had one.

Take comfort in this much, Yahoos. At least the Zapata Fish Oil Corporation hasn't bid on you.

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Thursday, May 01, 2008

Sample Hypothetical John Battelle Tweets

So John Battelle is hopping on Twitter. I have yet to be lured, so bear with me as I attempt to satirize without deep first-hand knowledge.

Here are some samples of the types of posts we are likely to see in the coming months. It is tough to Twitterize these down from his usual blog posts... but here's a try.

  • "So Google just acquired Volvo! Cool for a number of reasons. I will have a *lot more* to say about this but right now I am slammed at SXSW and will be back up for air soon."
  • "Holidays. Just loading up the jalopy right now taking the family down to Panama - I sure picked a crazy week to take off what with Larry Page turning out to be Obama's surprise choice for VP... lots happening... back next week..."
  • Intrigued by the nonexistent Twitter ad model. More to come...
Just kidding around of course :) - and I won't be going from B-List blogger to C-list Tweeter anytime soon thank you very much... (I figure you drop a level as soon as you start to Twitter...)

Back soon!

Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Sunday, April 27, 2008

Killer Verticals

Going back over some posts on Marc Andreessen's fantastic blog, pmarca, I came across this post that places market (and granular product-to-market fit and timing) ahead of "team" and "product per se" as a determinant of eventual success. In other words, a good product with an average team can still win if the market "pulls them along." I always thought of AOL as a company like that. You can probably think of many others. (Some in my field will say GoTo.com/Overture and Google AdWords were like that for awhile - they got better later.)

Cross-referencing these thoughts with some of the notables that show up on comScore's recent leaderboard of top web properties, I get some ideas.

Some markets are just so big, you can't dismiss them. Startups with a shot at doing something different in a vertical are not in a space that's "too crowded," arguably -- they are in the right place, with at least a solid chance of success.

Seeing Careerbuilder in 38th place, I think that startups like SimplyHired have a good shot at carving out a more than respectable sliver of a huge market, no matter how huge it seems.

In such verticals, international expansion also makes a ton of sense. Italy, Greece, Turkey, Singapore, French Canada, Mexico, "small" markets compared to the U.S.? Not if the category is big enough.

Seeing American Greetings in a ridiculously high position, I think that a greetings *feature* should probably be rolled out by Flickr, YouTube, gapingvoid, and others. If companies already have such things it may be worth pushing them a little harder. Greetings sound boring. But how many other categories have a whole store in the mall? Hallmark has a whole store in my mall.

Target (#20) and Wal-Mart (#22) are of a different ilk entirely. They actually sell "stuff." Those are some gaudy user numbers, though. Just imagine how many retailers in how many categories never thought e-commerce was worth the level of investment that could take it to that level. There are category winners in online retail still waiting to be decided. $1 million in up-front investment (or so) is all it would take some current laggards to dominate their niches. What are they waiting for?

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Saturday, April 26, 2008

How High is Your Bounce Rate?

Playing the role of a regular consumer trying to find something sure is eye-opening some days.

There must be a reason we all flock to third-party informational sites: the moment you give a corporate site the benefit of the doubt and actually try to visit the thing to discover more about a product you're keenly interested in, they let you down.


BMW Canada has a microsite for the 1 Series that requires you to "register for a PIN" to get into the site at all. See ya.

Infiniti Canada doesn't seem to want me to learn about their products, either. After struggling through the "English/French" splash page, I'm asked on a second page whether I want to fill out a survey. If I say no, I might be able to still access the site, which is heartening. But 75% of users will bounce at one of the two pages. 100% of search engine crawlers won't bother to wade into the rest of the site, though you can sure hold out hope that they'll pay attention to your SiteMap file. (Hmm, you're a big car company and they want your ad dollars... so... expect spider love to be sporadic at best, unless you embrace informational principles and quality user experiences.)

And of course the large hardware retailer that always asks me for my postal code if I want to see the product page for light fixtures. So the price will match the prices in the nearest retail stores. Boing!

I could stand on the roof of Casa Loma reciting the Cluetrain Manifesto over and over in the hopes that the "agencies of record" will listen... but then again, I could just get on with my life.

It's tremendously liberating when you stop hiding the banana, folks. Try it sometime.

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Last Call for Microhoo Scenarios

I chatted with some tech industry folk in Canada today and sifting through our posts here, they were confused as to whether I was for or against the Microhoo merger. To sum up, personally I have stated on a few occasions that from the standpoint of search advertisers (as practitioners), consolidation will be helpful if it happens, because it makes it easier to buy, promises better data and better overall product in the #2 player (eventually).

But as for precise buyout, merger, and integration scenarios, who knows, right? I remember being proud of calling Google-YouTube right, sort of. A lot of people critiqued the idea of the deal, and I thought it made sense. However, I thought Google might "buy it to kill it," and fold YouTube into Google video. Hey, small detail.

Anyway, I'm getting more interested in one of the low-probability scenarios outlined by Mona in this week's SEL column. Here's an even more precise version. Microsoft does the takeover, but with a side agreement with News Corp. in hand (that Yahoo also agrees with, on a high level handshake). Microsoft would identify the search, ad interface, display ad platform, network, tools, and other core portal & search assets that it wanted to consolidate. News Corp. would then inherit a significant number of content properties, at a healthy premium, in a flip from Microhoo.

News Corp's involvement would allow Microsoft to sweeten its offer by a couple of dollars, thus making it palatable to the Yahoo board.

Of course News Corp would need some assurances that its involvement would lead to wins for itself - presumably guarantees of advertiser dollars or something else.

We'll see.

Anyway, that's as pro-merger as I get. It makes sense on the search and search ads side, and with a savvy strategy to offload some of the content bulk to another organization, it gets more digestible.

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Posted by Andrew Goodman
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You Can't Search for Nothing on Yahoo

Rich Skrenta finds an interesting bug in Yahoo Search: unlike Google and Microsoft, which return search results, a search for "0" on Yahoo reloads the blank search engine box.

He also thinks Microsoft's result is biased.

Given the difficulty in figuring out how to handle this pesky query... why not just rank Page Zero at the top? Can't we all be friends?

Posted by Andrew Goodman
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